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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • If I was taking an emergency long trip… I’d probably buy a plane ticket?

    I’ve only had my EV about 2 months; but for all the driving I’ve done (even thinking back over the past few years) it’s more than sufficient. With 2 kids and a house; long trips in the car are pretty rare. And the ones I’ve taken we need 30+ min stops every 2-3 hours anyway: for food, bathrooms, and just keeping the kids happy.

    Shout out to Buccee’s for putting in a ton of chargers! They realized people will spend money inside if they have to stop for 20-30 min anyway. The gas customers are stopped that long and spending that money as well anyway it seems!

    I’m super happy with it and kind of wish I bought one sooner (but, part of what made me buy now was a great deal on a used one). No regrets!












  • Every Republican presidential term in my lifetime has had a recession start. None of the Democratic ones have…

    Regan; one started each term. First Bush had one in his term. Clinton had none in his 2 terms. Second Bush had a HUGE one each time (dot com and great recession). Obama had none in his 2 terms. trump had one in his first term (triggered by covid & shutdowns; which his (in)actions intensified…). Biden didn’t have one (but; just barely… and only by the official definition [NBER]; he did have two negative real GDP quarters, so one could argue this point). Now we’re starting trump’s second term, so we’ll see (it’s pretty clear we’ll have a recession within 2 years).

    This isn’t really debatable unless you ignore the evidence. Stock market and real GDP growth are overall way higher under Democrat presidents. One link for reference (but many more are available): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-021-00912-y


  • So if the difference is corporate consolidation… Sounds like that’s the real underlying issue then, not automation.

    Economics has well established that monopolistic behavior by firms harms consumers & the overall economy (that’s why we have anti-trust laws in the first place).

    Don’t conflate the one problem with another, as I agree the erosion of anti-trust laws is a bad thing and needs to be reversed. But that doesn’t mean firms further automating things is now also bad.

    I’d also say “automation affecting the whole economy at once” isn’t unique. The industrial revolution was not isolated to one industry, its effects were economy-wide. Also true for the transportation revolution (trains & steam boats moved everything), telecommunications, and the internet…


  • If you’re not aware, look up the automation paradox: https://ideas.ted.com/will-automation-take-away-all-our-jobs/

    Every* automation advancement has lead to an increase in employment, not decrease. Most often jobs in the immediate sector are lost, but the rise in supporting sector jobs are bolstered.

    Classic examples are the cotton mill and combine harvester. The number of agricultural workers declined, but the number of jobs processing agricultural product increased. Or with ATMs, the number of tellers needed per bank location decreased, but the total employment in the banking sector increased (banks opened more branches, namely in places where it was previously cost prohibitive).

    As more things are automated, what’s being automated becomes cheaper and more prolific, often increasing (or creating) new opportunities. There are so many historic examples of this, it’s hard to justify “this time is different” predictions… Even for things like AI automating white collar jobs.

    *Edit: almost every. It depends a bit on how you count the secondary jobs, and where those are located (automation combined with offshoring results in a net decline in some countries, but increase overall).



  • VIX under 20 isn’t a warning… The stock market valuation indicator I agree with: stocks are a bit over valued right now. But over valued just means we need a correction… not whether it will be a mild or severe one.

    What’s more troubling is the market reacting already to nonsense trump comments. From the caption in the linked article:

    The latest market sell-off was partly triggered by former President Donald Trump’s comments on Taiwan and tariffs.

    Does no one else remember the dumpster fire that was the markets jumping at every comment and policy flip-flop during his four year term? The same volatility indicator (VIX) regularly jumped over 20 after some dumb trade policy comment…