

Great assessment TBH. Iran is clearly posturing here, they haven’t won yet, even though the US did lose already.
US plutocrats don’t actually care that much whether the stock market is red or green in the short term, they will make money from it either way. I think the existing strategy of jacking up oil prices (which will impact the economy long-term) and also hitting their assets directly where possible (e.g. datacenters and refineries) will have more impact.
However, it is also possible that with some reshuffling of the demands the ceasefire might actually hold. If they allow Trump to not lose face, they could get most of their demands practically met and be the ultimate victors in this. I hope this is how it goes, otherwise we might see a worldwide famine due to fertilizer shortages by the end of this year.





I would argue it’s not. There’s still a lot of professional and industrial software that doesn’t run on Linux at all, even through Wine. I’ve had a glimpse into the world of industrial automation, there’s a bunch of devices that simply don’t have the drivers to run on anything but a specific (old) version of Windows. Supply chain issues would persist for decades.