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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Trying to sell consumers on “scaling solves everything” is going to be a hard sell.

    If we look at general purpose computation, which had decades of actual scaling-solves-everything growth, you had two influences that made the message resonate with customers:

    • Clear existing applications where more power made the experience straightforward better. Your spreadsheet took an hour to recalculate at 8MHz and 20 minutes at 25MHz. A lot of the “bigger model” stuff is plateauing with marginal or spotty gains. If I feed another 5 Internets of data to ChatGPT, will that summarized email be that much better?

    • New applications that could be demoed on specialised low capacity hardware and scaled down to consumers as more power became available. Think of early CGI on hardware costing tens of millions, and now you can run Blender on a $149 laptop. Since most commercial AI plays are hosted services, there’s not much opportunity to tease that way anymore.


  • The difference was that Amazon knew how to make a profit, but was reinvesting into infrastructure plays and bigger fish.

    If they had to, they could have been a modestly profitable bookshop in 2002. AWS and monster logistics might not have developed to put them in the 13-digit club though.

    Does any AI-centric play have that fundamental fallback? The services that seem to be most effective at direct monetization, the coding tools, are typically running at huge losses. If they raised costs to cover, precious few firms will pay basically the salary of a senior dev for an emulation of an enthusiastic junior dev with an affinity for footguns.

    The less enterprise-focused products-- parasocial toys, image and video gen, will likely try to dip into consumer subs and advertising, but can that generate the cash volumes these platforms demand?



  • Culver’s is… interesting.

    I find I don’t like the paper-thin style burgers much (though the fish sandwich is probably the best fast-food fish sandwich on the market) but it always gives the impression they’re trying a little harder. The restaurant always seems clean and a bit of effort was done on the appearance, like they’re still in 1978 and taking the family for a sit-down meal there might be an option.

    OTOH, the customer base seems to be people who have been going there since 1978, but that could be my location.

    They’re opening a new one 3km from my house, next to a McDonalds that hasn’t made a single order correctly since it opened in ~2015, so it will be interesting to see how the market shakes out.


  • I think the choice of automatic-only may be less conspiratorial and more streamlining the product to broad tastes.

    If only 10% of buyers choose the manual, it probably adds a fair amount of manufacturing and supply chain complexity to service them, which might drive up the cost for all models.

    It’s like how most US carmakers don’t offer many diesel models.

    Now, the ratchet of interior features… Plenty of people don’t want a huge monolith of an infotainment system with 14 speakers, but it’s standard and you can then be upsold the premium one with 25 speakers.



  • It creates a clear heirarchy of information too. The system owns the title bar, so any operations there are system operations.

    At one point browsers did something similar for security awareness-- real permission prompts, etc. were set a few pixels over into the main UI to establist that they were “real” and not part of the page content.

    Most of the time, we’re not so starved for pixels that we have tp be stealing from the title bar.

    Hell, we lived thtough 640x480 desktops without even the cheat of hamburger menus.



  • It smells more like Facebook than Steam to me. they can print money for now because they have established scale and customer base, but it feels a bit slimy to where it might not be that appealing to new users. Dating services in general have a bad vibe-- bot problems, low quality matches, dark patterns, so authenticity is a big selling point, something AI drives a huge stake into.

    I’d expect that thr gay community, after decades of being a target for abuse, tends to be a bit more sensitive of red flags and looking for truly safe spaces. The Facebook comparison breaks down there, as it has 700 million Aunt Martha users whose most politically sensitive post is in defence of Miracle Whip on salads.








  • On a high level, you can get a cleaner like Deoxit D5 in a spray bottle. Most pots have a slit in them so you can spray into them, then turn the pot through its range a bunch of times. It’s worth a try as a start. Obviously do it while the unit is unplugged.

    If you want to consider a more aggressive rebuild, like a capacitor replacement, maybe find a cheap old amplifier at the thrift shop to use as practice for desoldering/resoldering.

    You might be able to connect the BT to one input on the amp, like the tape input, and the CD to another.




  • I’m surprised there isn’t more of a crowdsourced solution-- community maintained block/allow lists and pluggable tools.

    Part of the reason filters suck right now is that they’re sold to turboprudes and people pushing compliance solutions that will placate litigious turboprudes. So you get blocking all of Wikipedia and .edu/.gov because three pages have an anatomical diagram of a breast. The kids are frustrated, normal parents have to keep unblocking legit stuff, and nobody wins.

    If you could pick from easily managed lists sponsored by groups you personally trusted, with responsive appeals systems, people might be more willing to use them.

    The ad-blocker ecosystem has a lot of precedent for how to work this stuff.