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Cake day: June 26th, 2023

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  • This plane goes with the Trump family in the end, calling it now. The new Air Force One model, VC-25B, has been in work for a long time. This new plane saves nothing. Boeing already has the two the USAF ordered. They have been in construction for years now. This new one would have to be stripped bare and built up considerably to reach the point the other two are at already.

    I bet this one sits still for a while under the facade that it’s going to be AF1, then quietly becomes his family’s personal plane under the guise it’ll save us money to fly them someplace once, twice, forever. Who’s going to stop them anyway?



  • Not manufacturers, dealers. A legally required middleman in most of the US. They’ll take your $10k car for $7k and try to resell it for $12k. Even if it gets negotiated to a fair price, they still get the opportunity to upsell used car buyers into extended warranties and maintenance plans.

    Tesla is a little different in that they do not have dealers, so they instead do no-negotiatiation sales on their used cars. It’s good for them because they can do the same buy low sell high deal. But when the model is not selling, they’ll have to buy it and sit on that asset for months or dump it at auction.



  • I studied this a bit in my MS and the answer is… probably not. “The grid will collapse” has been an anti-technology or pro fossil fuel talking point for a very long time, whether* its arguing against renewables or against personal computers or against AC units. The most recent was solar. Grid operators were adamant that solar would crash the grid if it accounted for more than 10%, then 20%, then 30% and so on and it never happened. Now it’s onto EVs being the grid destroyer.

    The reality is that production and use is not all that hard to predict. Ultrafast charging will eat some power, but that isn’t going to be the norm for wide EV adoption. Public charging will cost more money and be less convenient than charging at home or work over a longer duration. Home chargers are capping around 30-35 amps, generally overnight when grid demand is low. Couple this with the combined low cost for residential solar to change at even lower rates depending on your state/nation’s hostility to solar.

    Now, if every car was replaced with an EV tomorrow, the grid would struggle. But that’s not going to happen. Adoption will be a long slow process and energy producers will increase output on pace as demand forecasts increase. A good parallel to this is Air Conditioning adoption. That’s another high demand appliance that went from rare to common. The grid has its challenges, but now the AC usage is forcastable and rarely challenges the grid.

    Is it a challenge, especially with higher renewable mixtures, yes. Can utilities fumble? Of course. Will it be a widespread brownout every day during commute hours? Not likely.



  • I highly doubt this bill goes anywhere. Democrats have a Trifecta in MN. Slim, but still. They were able to narrowly get it out of committee, but getting it to pass on the floor, or even brought to a vote at all, is a heavy lift. Id bet it never makes it to a floor vote and the Rs can say they tried. Committee votes are a very easy and non-significant way to “vote for something” without actually doing anything. Mainly because the overwhelming majority of Americans have no idea how government works and will take it at face value.

    Even if it did somehow pass, no way Gov Walz signs it into law. That sends it back for a 2/3rds vote to overcome the veto and that certainly won’t happen.






  • The fight doesn’t end with a ballot measure, in any state. They will keep trying to ban it forever. A similar thing happened in KS. A ballot measure was created to keep healthcare decisions out of the government’s hands, which was already in the state constitution.

    KS GOP said people needed to vote no and that it was in no way an attack on abortion. It had nothing to do with abortion. It was just about making sure people could get medical care, absolutely nothing would be done to abortion rights. Just let the GOP help you get healthcare, they said.

    The ballot measure passed, maintaining abortion rights, and the GOP, in a shocking move, immediately tried to ban abortion…twice…in 2 years.




  • Providing he doesn’t become a dictator, which is certainly probable, his impacts on the environment will be bad, but not catastrophic.

    Historically, when the incumbent is out, the president flips to the other party. Businesses plan strategy out for 5-10-20 years. Trump dismantling regulation won’t force them to reconsider their strategy entirely. They’ll use the 4 years as breathing room knowing it’s probable a democratic executive will return in 2029. They’ll slow walk progress, but they aren’t going to abandon everything and start ramping up emissions. They still have to sell products in CA and the 16 states that follow CA emissions rules. We already saw that in 2016, auto makers stayed the course. They enjoyed the extra time to get their fleet MPGs up, but they knew time would eventually out and they’d need to be competitive when that happened.

    Trumps “drill baby drill” plan sounds good to idiots, but oil is still subject to supply and demand. They already lease more land than they could ever use. They’ll use trump to buy up leases that would otherwise go to renewables, but they aren’t going to start pumping oil past demand and driving their profits down. Especially considering retaliation tariffs could cut into exports as well.

    The IRA benefits red states more than blue and they are already begging GOP leaders to leave it alone. Trump might be able to cut individual tax credits for the middle class. Slow some solar and EV purchases, buy that’ll cut into Elon’s business as well, so maybe he won’t even get that done.

    Of course, if he goes full dictator, we’re fucked anyway. But if he stays within the confines of our flawed democracy, and money prefers he do so they can continue to buy laws forever, then there’s a chance his damage will be confined as well.